Analyses by IP firm Appleyard Lees reveal that patent applications for cultivated meat have plateaued following a period of significant growth, while plant-based meat patent applications have fallen for the first time since 2013.
While the slowdown in patent applications is likely to be piggybacked by those keen to portray alternative protein as failing or on its knees, these findings can be viewed effectively through the lens of the Gartner Hype Cycle.
Due to the unprecedented food disruption that took place at the peak of the hype cycle, a slowdown in the speed of innovation in the food industry is absolutely inevitable. Future innovations are expected to focus on incremental improvements and stricter vetting, potentially enhancing long-term success, explained Rabobank last year.
The trough of disillusionment
Rabobank and key industry figures have highlighted the “trough of disillusionment” in plant-based meat, a phase of waning enthusiasm after initial hype in emerging industries.
“…genuine innovations will weather the storm, and have the potential to truly reshape the world”
The trough of disillusionment is a phase of the Gartner Hype Cycle that sees a decline in the industry following a peak of unrealistic inflated expectations, generally followed by an upward trend as the technology matures, then an eventual plateau as it gains mainstream adoption, such as with technologies like solar panels and electric vehicles. Rabobank suggested the industry could recover as technologies mature, eventually achieving mainstream adoption and dominance.
Eben Bayer touched upon the hype cycle in an Op Ed for vegconomist, explaining, “The current landscape does not spell trouble for most companies in the space. In fact, history promises that we’re just getting started […] Today we find ourselves in a crucial part of the innovation cycle, in which our industry is evolving and refining itself to better serve Spaceship Earth and those that inhabit it.
“I think we are going to start going up the slope of enlightenment and we’ll see a rebirth”
“At this point in the ‘hype cycle’ for plant-based meats, the category has been defined, consumers have taken an interest, and rapid product innovation will take hold and push the industry forward. The good news about innovation, as the cycle demonstrates, is that fads may come and go, but genuine innovations will weather the storm, and have the potential to truly reshape the world,” he added.
In a 2024 Food Trends report earlier this year, Jo-Ann McArthur, president and founder of Nourish Food Marketing, also referred to the relevance of the hype cycle. “We moved from that technology trigger and innovation introduction where people were interested in trying [faux meats], and then we got into that trough of disillusionment after that initial hype subsided. Now, I think we are going to start going up the slope of enlightenment and we’ll see a rebirth with more products putting the plant back into plant-based,” she noted.
Cultivated meat
According to Appleyard Lees, new patent filings in cultivated meat plateaued in 2022, possibly due to the impact of COVID-19 and the subsequent economic downturn. Previously, a rapid growth in filings was seen between 2019 and 2021. However, the number of filings has not decreased, despite the challenging economic situation.
In Europe, the UK leads new patent filings in the cultivated meat sector due to a favorable regulatory environment and a lack of strong public opposition. The country has granted its first approval for cultivated meat in pet food, and is seeing the emergence of new companies such as Ivy Farm. Worldwide, the latter company has the second-largest number of new filings, after the US’s Upside Foods.
Cultivated meat continues to see considerable challenges, including bans in Italy and some US states. Lack of consumer acceptance, regulatory hurdles, and high production costs may also pose obstacles. For example, Upside Foods has faced challenges with building new facilities and developing methods to support large-scale cultivated meat production, despite being the biggest patent filer.
The global economic downturn has also created difficulties for the industry, with cultivated meat investments falling from $922.3 million in 2022 to $225.9 million in 2023 according to GFI data. Five companies (Upside Foods, Believer Meats, Wildtype, Aleph Farms, and Mosa Meat) accounted for 46.9% of funds raised last year, and it has been challenging for new startups to enter the industry.
Plant-based meat
Though new patent applications for plant-based meat have fallen, seemingly due to commercial difficulties in the industry, they still reached the second-highest level to date in 2022. Unlike other alternative protein sectors, large established companies dominate plant-based meat patent applications, and the number of unique applicants has fallen.
Pea and soy remain the key proteins of interest, but only tofu and tempeh saw growth in 2022. This may be due to a shift away from foods perceived as ultra-processed.
The analysis notes that investment and funding in the sector remain relatively high, and that a second wave of plant-based meats may be on the horizon despite the significant downturn in the industry in recent years. However, there are some challenges that must be overcome, such as the higher price of plant-based meat compared to conventional meat and consumer dissatisfaction with the taste and texture of some products.
“Despite the financial challenges in the sector, there is still optimism that plant-based meat can offer a solution for those consumers seeking meat alternatives that provide the sensations of consuming meat, especially if the current hurdles around nutrition and texture can be overcome,” state Appleyard Lees.
